I’ve made it no secret that I don’t think Anthony Weiner should be running for Mayor of New York City. With a clearly sordid personal life and potentially more scandals to fall out of his skeleton of closets, the former Congressman would put City Hall on rocky ground if he were to be elected Mayor.
However, after looking at the polling numbers, I’m left wondering if Anthony Weiner might be helping Chris Quinn’s chances of winning the Democratic primary for Mayor. It might sound odd, but here’s what I’ve observed.
In order to win the party’s nomination, one of the Democrats must get 40% of the votes in the September 10th primary. If that doesn’t happen, the top two vote getters will enter a run-off primary schedule to occur on
Despite the fact that Quinn was polling almost high enough to potentially walk away with 40% in the primary before Weiner entered the race, that probably would have been unlikely due to the crowded field of Democrats who want the nomination. Because, let’s face it, the candidate who wins the Democratic nomination is likely to sail into the Mayor’s office with ease.
However, when Weiner entered the Mayor’s race, the poll numbers began to fluctuate. He’s even lead in some surveys by a few percentage points putting him in a statistical dead heat with Quinn.
So now, Weiner says, he’s in the race to stay. Unless he’s disturbed enough voters or completely turned off his core supporters with this latest texting scandal, the polls show a Quinn-Weiner run-off to be likely.
Now here’s how Weiner could help Quinn win the party nomination. If Weiner dropped out of the race for Mayor right now, his supporters are probably a bit too liberal to jump behind the Quinn campaign. That means his support will likely go to Bill Thompson or Bill DiBlasio. On the flip side, however, if DiBlasio and Thompson are wiped out in the primary… their supporters are more likely to jump behind Quinn than Weiner. That’s how Quinn would then win the run-off election making her the Democratic nominee.
The polling statistics show that Thompson and DiBlasio supporters seem more aligned with the demographics and share the similar concerns of Quinn supporters. Additionally, I think all of the candidates in the Democratic field have made it clear that they don’t want Weiner in the race to begin with… so there’s a slim-to-none chance that any of the other contenders will endorse a Weiner candidacy.
That’s how Anthony Weiner is going to help Chris Quinn get elected Mayor of New York City… and as far as I’m concerned it’s the best thing he can do for public service.